Belarus could be used as a launchpad for attacks on Ukraine and Western neighbours, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned on The Europe Conversation.
Belarus is becoming an increasingly unstable player in Eastern Europe as the country falls further under Russia’s influence, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told Euronews in an interview, warning that the country could serve as a launchpad for military aggression against Ukraine and other Western neighbours.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed in Munich last month that Russia plans to station up to 150,000 troops in Belarus this year, potentially targeting NATO countries. With Belarus aligning ever more closely with Moscow, Tsikhanouskaya argued that the nation’s sovereignty is at risk, leaving both its future and the security of its neighbours uncertain.
For Tsikhanouskaya, sanctions remain a critical tool in deterring further Russian aggression. “It’s about changing our country, and sanctions are one of the most effective instruments,” she said. “I’m absolutely sure that only consistent policy can work with dictators. We insist that sanctions are instruments to influence dictators’ behaviour, and we can use this instrument. We can talk about softening sanctions for further steps of negotiation, because our final goal is to release all people and hold free and fair elections,” she told The Europe Conversation.
Recent signs of growing integration between Russia and Belarus have raised alarms. Belarusian citizens can now participate in elections, but Tsikhanouskaya sees this as a step toward Belarus’s absorption by Russia. “It’s a creeping occupation and it is done with the allowance of Lukashenko, who is Putin’s puppet. Lukashenko is ready to sell our sovereignty, our independence, our country to Russia just to stay in power,” Tsikhanouskaya said.
The process of Russification, she argued, has been steadily advancing, with deals being made that ignore Belarus’s national interests. “No matter how many people are allowed to vote, this process is not considered to be elections. Of course, it’s a very concerning sign that Lukashenko, with his hands, is pushing Belarus closer to Russia,” Tsikhanouskaya said.
While Tsikhanouskaya does not see the situation as one of physical annexation, like Ukraine’s, she believes it’s about maintaining a government loyal to Moscow. “They want a loyal government to have the appearance of an independent country, but with the government serving Putin, so at any moment they can use our land for further invasion—for the European Union, for example—or simply to promote propagandistic interests. This is what they want: a puppet regime in the country.”
Launchpad for an invasion
At the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy issued a stark warning that Russia might be preparing to use Belarus as a launchpad for an invasion, similar to the 2022 attack on Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya shared these concerns. “While Lukashenko is in power, Belarusian land can be used as a launching pad for an attack again on Ukraine or on our Western neighbours,” she said.
The potential for such an invasion remains unpredictable. “It will show that the democratic world cannot decisively answer whether they accept subjugation or if the invasion of other countries is possible. And they do not have the instruments to counter this. It might happen that they will knock on the doors of the European Union.”
Tsikhanouskaya argued that dictators only understand the language of power, saying: “If you cannot provide this power, if you cannot show your bravery and boldness, dictators will say, ‘Okay, we will cross the next red line’.”
Democratic aspirations remain intact
Tsikhanouskaya remained hopeful for the future of Belarus, recognising that change could come through various means. “Changes in Belarus can happen through different venues, but what’s important is that democratic forces, our society, and Europe are prepared for these changes.”
Despite the current climate, Tsikhanouskaya believed Belarus’ democratic aspirations have not vanished. “We have to remember that the people out on the streets only represent part of the resistance to the regime. If the country appears calm doesn’t mean people have given up. It means they are preparing and will be ready when the possibility for change comes.”
In Tsikhanouskaya’s view, there are more possibilities to change regime in Belarus than in Russia.
