The European Union will extend the temporary protection granted to Ukrainian refugees until March 2027 as it paves the way for a “gradual return and sustainable reintegration” in the country once Russia’s invasion comes to an end, a prospect that remains distant and precarious as Moscow stalls the negotiations promoted by the United States.
It marks the first time that Brussels presents a detailed roadmap for Ukrainians to either go home after the war or stay in the bloc on a long-term basis.
An estimated 4.3 million Ukrainians left their country and relocated across the EU in what is considered the largest refugee crisis since World War II.
“Since 2022, we have provided protection for those fleeing Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and we continue to do so,” said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.
“And together with Ukraine, we pave the way for people to be able to return and rebuild their homes once it is safe.”
Under the Commission’s plan, unveiled on Wednesday afternoon, the bloc will continue the path charted in the early days of the war, when member states rapidly agreed to activate the Temporary Protection Directive to provide hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s war with immediate legal shelter.
The directive has the benefit of bypassing the traditionally cumbersome asylum to fast-track access to residence permits, the labour market, social welfare, medical treatment and the education system. The law asks governments to reduce formalities “to a minimum” due to the urgency of attending a “mass influx” of refugees.
With no end in sight to Russia’s war, the directive has been repeatedly extended to ensure legal certainty for Ukrainians. The Commission proposes a new prolongation until 4 March 2027, which member states are certain to approve in the coming weeks.
At the same time, Brussels charts what it calls a “coordinated transition out of temporary protection” to lay the groundwork for the eventual day when the invasion ends and refugees face a real choice between staying in the bloc or going back to Ukraine.
The cessation of hostilities, however, does not automatically imply the return of all those who escaped the violence. The recent case of Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad demonstrates the complexity of managing a post-war reality.
Many parts of Ukraine, including entire cities and communities, have been devastated by incessant Russian bombardment. The World Bank estimates the country’s recovery and reconstruction will cost €506 billion over the next decade, a colossal bill that Kyiv and its allies hope to partially offset by leveraging Russia’s frozen sovereign assets.
But besides foreign donations and investment, Ukraine will need people to help rebuild its battered economy and infrastructure. According to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernysho, who joined the Commission’s presentation, an additional four million workers might be required to double the country’s GDP over a 10-year period.
“It is a fact that we need more people (to come) back to Ukraine, of course, under the condition is stable and the war is over,” Chernysho said.
“Only a strong economy can pave the way to the future success of Ukraine and successful integration in the European Union. That’s why it’s so important to us.”
Integration and return
Mindful of the balancing act, the Commission recommends that member states prepare for two main scenarios.
On the one hand, the possibility that some Ukrainians will wish to remain in the EU countries where they have integrated themselves. This should be done through legal avenues, such as long-term residence permits, student visas and the regular migration status, to replace the ongoing temporary protection. The switch will depend on national legislation and might be done before the directive expires.
On the other hand, the possibility that some refugees will opt to go back to Ukraine. This should be done through “voluntary return programmes” – as opposed to any form of forced deportations – and “exploratory visits” to help Ukrainians travel home, meet their families and assess the circumstances on the ground.
Additionally, the new plan promotes the establishment of so-called “Unity Hubs” to inform refugees about the two options – integration and return – and foster connections among Ukrainians living abroad. The roadmap also foresees the appointment of a special envoy to oversee the transition at the political level.
The Commission insists that any movement should take place “once the necessary conditions are met” – that is, once a just and lasting peace is achieved. The temporary protection could be suspended if a deal is struck before March 2027.
“When the time comes to end temporary protection, we’ll also have to be mindful of Ukraine’s absorption capacity. We cannot do everything from one day to another,” said Magnus Brunner, the Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration.
“We’re therefore asking member states to put in place voluntary return programmes to allow a staggered and organised return to Ukraine.”
Although the reception of Ukrainian refugees enjoys enduring support among member states, the question of funding has at times caused friction. Since the start of the war, the EU budget has doled out €15 billion in emergency assistance. But for some nations in Ukraine’s periphery, the help has fallen short of their needs.
Last year, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic called on Brussels to provide fresh cash to alleviate their “strained” capacities and the “uneven” burden-sharing. The three countries host about 50% of all displaced Ukrainians in the bloc.
Following a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in May, Ursula von der Leyen announced €3 billion to support Ukrainian refugees and the EU’s migration reform. A further €1 billion will be allocated to the same end. Future costs will have to be addressed by the next seven-year budget, which has not yet been presented.
