Labour has shot up in the latest 1News Verian poll, while National’s Christopher Luxon has fallen to his worst preferred PM result in two years.
New Zealand First is also continuing its rise, now moving ahead of ACT to become the fourth biggest party, just behind the Greens.
If an election were to be held today the poll indicates the right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First would have 63 seats — enough to form a coalition. The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 58 seats, short of the numbers required to form a government.
If an election were to be held today, which parties would be able to form a government? (Source: 1News)
This mirrors the overall result recorded in the last Verian poll in June.
National has remained steady on 34% support, but Labour is now nipping at its heels, moving up by 4% to 33%.
The Greens are the biggest casualties in this poll, losing the 2% they had gained in the previous poll. They fell back from 12% to 10%.
New Zealand First has increased its vote for the third poll in a row, now up to 9% – their strongest result since August 2017.
ACT meanwhile has remained steady on 8%, with Te Pāti Māori also steady on 4%.
A total of 1002 eligible voters were surveyed from August 2 to August 6, with the proportion of those who didn’t know who they’d vote for, or refused to say, growing by 1% to 12% since the last poll.
Today’s numbers mean National would have 42 seats in Parliament, down 7 on their current allocation, Labour would have 40, up 6. The Greens would have 12, down by 2.
New Zealand First would have 11 seats, up by 3, while ACT would have 10 seats, down 1.
Te Pāti Māori would have 6 MPs, as they do at present. This assumes they hold on to their six electorate seats, including winning the Tāmaki Makaurau byelection, with an extra seat in a 121-seat Parliament as a result of an overhang.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, National’s Christopher Luxon has fallen by 3% and is now on 20% — his worst result since August 2023, a few months before becoming Prime Minister.
Labour’s Chris Hipkins isn’t faring particularly well either, remaining steady just behind Luxon on 19%.
Winston Peters is the third preferred option, moving up 1% to 7%.
Chlöe Swarbrick has fallen by 1% to 4% and David Seymour is also steady on 4%.
The rise and fall of the public’s preference for leader, according to the latest 1News/Verian poll. (Source: 1News)
Rounding out the honourable mentions on 1% are former PM Jacinda Ardern, Te Pāti Māori’s Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke and new entrants New Zealand First deputy leader Shane Jones, Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader Rawiri Waititi, Education Minister Erica Stanford, Police Minister Mark Mitchell and senior Labour MP Kieran McAnulty.
Luxon dodged questions about his popularity. He said: “It’s not about me or the polls. It’s really about the New Zealand people and I’m working incredibly hard to make sure that we are fixing the economy.
“We’ve got the right long-term plan and importantly we’ve got great days ahead of us and ultimately the New Zealand people will make that decision in 2026.”
Hipkins said he was optimistic as a result of his party’s support in the poll.
He said: “I’ve set out Labour’s priorities are jobs, health, homes and re-election on the cost of living. And I think New Zealanders can see that the National Party’s taking New Zealand backwards on all of those issues.
“I think New Zealanders can see that the things that Christopher Luxon said he was going to fix are actually getting worse under his leadership.”
Economic outlook
The public’s perception about the state of the economy has fallen since June.
Economic optimism has fallen 5% to 36%, while pessimism has remained at 21%. The remaining 43% expect the economy to stay in its current state over the next 12 months.
Party vote
National – 34% (Steady since May)
Labour – 33% (up 4%)
Green – 10% (down 2%)
New Zealand First – 9% (up 1%)
ACT – 8% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 4% (steady)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1% (Steady)
Animal Justice Party- 1% (up 1%)
Don’t know / refused to say – 12% (up 1%)
Seats in the House
National – 42
Labour – 40
Green – 12
New Zealand First – 11
ACT – 10
Te Pāti Māori – 6
Total: 121
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 20% (down 3%)
Chris Hipkins – 19% (steady)
Winston Peters – 7% (up 1%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 4% (down 1%)
David Seymour – 4% (steady)
See the full results and methodology here
Between August 2 and August 6 2025, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
