Welcome back, this newsletter comes to you from a train departing Luxembourg to Brussels, with very dodgy internet, wrapping two days of meetings.
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For those who don’t know, I started my career in politics covering Eurogroup meetings, doing more doorsteps in the cold than I can remember. And still get a kick out of it after all these years, even if that means a three-hour train ride.
What’s new this week? Negotiations around the next European common budget are underway, and that means one thing: not a cent will go down without a fight.
Personally, I find these discussions uninspiring for as long as European sovereignty is reduced to petty fighting over a “nego box” and the real issue is ignored: funding independence. If you don’t know what a “nego box” means, congratulations, you get to keep your sanity with zero jargon in mind.
Ultimately, the budget story is roughly always the same: the richer countries will try to rein in spending, suggesting they pay too much into the common pot, although they tend to ignore that they benefit equally from a well-functioning single market, and the not-so-rich — I’m trying to be polite — will push to keep their agriculture money and cohesion funds unchanged. And then, there’s Italy.
As I joked with my friend Paola Tamma between press conferences, Rome is perceived as being in the group of “quelli che non pagano” because it behaves like one (don’t touch the agriculture money), but Italy is a net payer.
That explains why Giorgia Meloni was all about her money before the Italian parliament this week, insisting the rebates system — the discounts payers get from their contribution, including Germany and the Netherlands — has to be fully scrapped, or Italy will demand one too.
Her comments are interesting because they signal that next week’s European summit will go berserk on the budget from the get-go.
And that’s because everyone wants to get this done before 2027 with the French elections looming, which could see Marine Le Pen (whose future rests on a decision by an appeals court) or Jordan Bardella (who was spotted last weekend at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix with his Italian princess girlfriend) negotiating the next Multiannual Financial Framework. It seems far-fetched, possibly, but for diplomats, it’s better safe than sorry and who can blame them.
In Luxembourg, I also spoke with Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, as she briefed EU finance ministers.
Georgieva is always interesting to me because she brings the IMF’s global perspective, but she’s very European in her ways — after all, she is Bulgarian and previously served in Brussels as EU Budget Commissioner. Georgieva told me budget negotiations will be rough, as they always are, but the EU has to negotiate with a bigger goal in mind: boosting competitiveness and productivity.
She reiterated her call for Europe to invest and borrow collectively to fund common priorities such as energy and defence. “You can’t spend money you don’t have, and the money you have, you should spend wisely” — and doing it together makes sense for the EU, based on the IMF’s own calculations on funding costs. In private, I was told, Georgieva was even more fiery in her plea.
You can watch our chat on Europe Today on the sidelines of the meeting here.
As for my weekend plans? Packing, doing laundry and rushing to the dry cleaners, because tomorrow we set off for Evian as Emmanuel Macron prepares to host a G7 summit with President Trump in attendance.
Trump loves being the centre of attention, granted, but those of us who covered the G7 meetings in 2019 in Biarritz know the French President loves a coup d’éclat just as much. If you ask me, Paris would love to see Iranian representatives land in Evian and sign a deal ending the conflict — after all, President Trump did say an agreement is close (sure, he’s said that before) and could be signed in Europe. Hello, la France!
The truth is Macron is now the most senior G7 leader and this will be his last dance. You best believe he’s going to put on a hell of a show. On that note, Europe Today will be live from Evian next week and I will lead a special report every evening from the G7 meetings. À lundi.
As always, if you have any comments, email me at maria.tadeo@euronews.com.
— Maria Tadeo
The passion and resurrection of Kaja Kallas
It was something of a Brussels earthquake – reports this week pointing to a plan by European capitals to take control of the European External Action Service, stripping EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas of most of her powers, with member states handling foreign policy directly.
As Euronews reported, the situation is a tad more nuanced.
The French did circulate an informal document that – if implemented – would see a dramatic overhaul of the EU’s foreign service set up only 15 years ago. But much remains to be decided and diplomats familiar with its content also say the proposal is not intended to kill a sacred cow – at least not yet.
As I wrote in this piece alongside my colleague Luca Bertuzzi, the document envisions three scenarios. One would see the European Commission emerging victorious from a tussle over who represents the EU on the global stage, as the Berlaymont would practically take over the EEAS. In that sense, Ursula von der Leyen, who is already tapping hard into Kallas’ terrain, would cement her powers over foreign affairs in her “geopolitical” Commission.
A second option, according to sources speaking to Euronews, would see EU leaders taking control. The European Council, which dictates the lines of action in broad political terms, would move into an operational role. In that case, Kallas would also see her authority diminished. An official familiar with the document told me putting leaders in charge could accelerate decision-making, but it would also expose them to deep national divisions and play these up in public.
A third scenario would — and granted, this got less attention — sees the HRVP role strengthened, with the top European diplomat having direct input on Commission portfolios intertwined with foreign action, like trade. In that case, far from dismantling the EEAS, a restructuring would embolden it. Here, the Commission would lose out, and leaders could score a win if the HRVP becomes a vehicle to implement their vision. And that takes me to Kallas herself:
Une erreur de casting is what some capitals like to whisper whenever Kallas comes up in conversation. One diplomat even challenged me to go as far as “finding one delegation that will defend her record” beyond the Baltics. Kallas, a one-trick pony, lacking skills, expertise and global outreach on anything beyond Ukraine, a diplomat who does not master the art of subtleties, goes off script in clumsy ways and is most efficient at NAFO chitchat on social media.
The picture that emerges is excruciating, but one that also attempts at rewriting history and is not entirely fair either. Her weaknesses – just as her strengths – were clear from the start. Kallas did not have any meaningful foreign policy experience before she was appointed HRVP — but she had made a name for herself as the Iron Lady standing up to Russia, at a time in which Moscow poses the most serious security challenge to the continent since World War Two.
Leaders knew exactly who they were appointing and went for a package deal to include von der Leyen. If Kallas no longer works, that’s their mistake too.
Kallas is also facing a paradox of her own. Her best moments come when she goes off-script. Last February, I moderated a session with her on stage at the Munich Security Conference, where she had a bit of a renaissance precisely by being herself. Kallas called out US claims about censorship in Europe and rejected the idea of “civilisational erasure” as a result of woke politics, after the audience gave Marco Rubio’s Vance-lite speech a bizarre standing ovation.
Tensions at the EEAS are nothing new either. There is a structural problem with the way foreign policy operates in the EU. Everyone knows it. If the language of Europe is the translator, its voice on the world is a messy, unholy trinity.
Scholars of the EU will tell you the HRVP job is flashy, gets you a seat at the top table and international clout, but it is also hell. No High Representative has emerged from it unscathed. But Kallas is facing problems of her own. As I typed this newsletter, a diplomat texted me: “there really is a general malaise.”
On key regions such as the Middle East and Latin America, Kallas is far weaker than any of her predecessors. She has also alienated southern European countries who feel there is a form of prejudice against them on security matters. The departure of her Secretary-General at the EEAS, Belén Martínez, a little over a year into the job, points to management problems of her own.
Sources tell me Kallas is determined to fight not only for her own reputation, but for the very future of the EEAS itself. In an email sent to all staff seen by Euronews, she defended the body’s “valuable” contributions. The initial reports, I’m told, landed like a bomb internally. She also acknowledged “the system could work better and without duplication here in Brussels”, while stressing that the High Representative’s role is defined by the EU treaties. On that, she’s right.
And it is hardly surprising to see her pushing back. If she doesn’t, Kallas risks seeing the dismantling of her own office. Her entourage insists that such a characterisation is a gross exaggeration and overlooks the more positive options outlined in the French paper. Omitting them, they argue, is playing politics.
Brussels is a game of ups and downs — for someone to go up, someone else must come down. In certain Schuman corners, it’s been decided Kallas will take the fall. To be clear, the Commission said this week the EEAS is part of the decision-making process when it comes to EU policy. Wink, wink.
As for Kallas, she posted a not-so-cryptic message after her meeting in Paris on Friday with the French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, stressing the two are ‘working to build a stronger and more united Europe — one that acts with purpose, upholds values and defends our shared European interests’.
That’s almost word for word what the French minister had urged privately in the weeks before the document appeared in the press. Message understood.
If you ask me, at this stage only the leaders can bring her back from the negative spiral she’s caught in. To do that, Kallas will have to win back their trust and show that investing political capital in her is a safer bet than opting for the 13th floor. Assuming, that is, leaders don’t end up running the show themselves.
WHAT CAUGHT MY EYE THIS WEEK
Pope Leo’s apostolic journey in Spain. I once read that Catholics are the “it girls” of religion. High on vibes and aesthetics, and frankly, chapeau, nailed it.
Pope Leo’s week-long trip was a tour de force, with the grandeur and mystique only the Catholic Church can deliver. A 10-minute ceremony held at the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona, with the tower of Jesus Christ illuminated for the first time, delivered an impeccable display of visual storytelling — and I say this as someone who works in TV — in service of a revitalised Catholic Church.
A year into his papacy, Pope Leo has spoken against Trump, published his first encyclical calling to “disarm” artificial intelligence for the benefit of mankind in Magnifica Humanitas, and reconciled traditional aspects of the Catholic Church while retaining large parts of the progressive line embodied by Francis — including on issues like migration — who favoured a more pared-down Vatican.
On his apostolic journey across Madrid, Barcelona and the Canary Islands, the Pope showed he can draw enormous crowds, and that’s important. A pope who can attract millions of the faithful and mobilise them is indeed a powerful pope.
After all, the mission of the Church is to spread the word of God, to gather believers and make disciples of them. It was the pursuit of Peter before Christ, just as much as it is for Prevost today.
Pope Leo is also benefiting from what appears to be a change in zeitgeist — 15 years ago, I am not sure the streets of Madrid would have seen such high numbers. It is difficult to put a precise figure on how many have returned to the Church — ultimately, christenings, first communions and weddings only give a snapshot — but the conversation has certainly changed from “empty services” to “is Christianity making a comeback?” in the public discourse.
Call it a return to the divine in the face of a dire economy, the diminishing powers of unions and community ties, or the search for harmony mired by technological change in which connection no longer implies a bond — with someone or something. There is a gravitational pull towards spirituality.
Religion is also politics.
At the start of his papacy, Leo signalled he would build bridges, firstly, among Catholics themselves. His introduction to the world, in front of thousands in Piazza San Pietro, demonstrated a desire to maintain a strong social conscience while returning to some of the most classical elements of the Church.
My vaticanista friends used to argue that, by moving carefully, it was difficult to see what the Leo pontificate would actually entail. But that is changing. The timing of his encyclical, his decision to visit Spain first, his private meeting with Bad Bunny, the Puerto Rican superstar opposing Trump’s ICE policy, and his visit to a migrant centre in the Canary Islands — none of it is coincidental. This is a pope that, while shy in his mannerisms, is intentional in his messaging.
“You are not numbers or files. You are people with a family and a home left behind, with dreams that no one has the right to disregard,” Leo told migrants and social workers at the port of Arguineguín in Gran Canaria, which has seen an uptick in irregular arrivals, at times resulting in tragic deaths at sea.
His comments add much-needed nuance to the debate around migration in Europe — I am the first to say only Europeans decide who enters Europe, and the EU cannot combat trafficking and illegal smuggling alone. Third countries must grow a conscience and actually deploy the cash they receive from European taxpayers in providing support. The EU is not a cash machine.
Europe offers an opportunity to many — but it must come with civil duties too. The inability, for example, to expel those with criminal records, at times with multiple court orders to leave the territory, is a failure of the legal system and the institutions, and Europeans have signalled they will no longer tolerate this.
But shutting down any debate about integration and legal paths to citizenship to focus only on detentions and deportations is not a solution either — managing migration will take a dual approach. The EU would do well listening to Leo — there is a sense of shared humanity that cannot be lost in the political brouhaha.
BEFORE YOU GO
- Sunday, German national football team in World Cup debut game, 7pm CET
- Monday, G7 begins in Évian, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron. President Donald Trump will be in attendance.
- Also Monday, European Parliament plenary session begins in Strasbourg. General Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg. Spanish national football team plays its first World Cup match vs Cape Verde at 6pm CET.
- Tuesday, G7 continues with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Arab leaders from the UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in attendance.
- Also Tuesday, French national team makes World Cup debut against Senegal, 9pm CET.
- Wednesday, final day of G7 with press conferences from host country, France, and US President Trump expected to wrap three-day gathering.
- Also Wednesday, Portugal in World Cup debut with Cristiano Ronaldo in starting lineup vs Democratic Republic of Congo, 7pm CET.
- Thursday, European Council gathers for final summit before summer break.
- Special coverage of the World Cup runs weekdays on Europe Today at 8am.
Thank you for reading Off The Record. I’ll be back next Saturday with more — make sure to subscribe here so you never miss the next issue.
Maria Tadeo
Editor-in-Chief, EU News
