The United States is unlikely to reach an agreement with Ukraine on the joint production of Patriot interceptor missiles before this winter, US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said on Monday, fuelling uncertainty over the most critical aspect of Kyiv’s air defences.
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“A long-term production agreement will not be concluded before this winter. So we will continue working on it,” Whitaker said in a Fox News interview, stressing that PAC-3 Patriot interceptors remain tightly controlled under US export rules, meaning the scope for rapid licensing is limited.
“We do not allow anybody but US manufacturers to make those in the United States,” he said.
At the same time, Whitaker pointed to broader defence-industrial cooperation under discussion with Ukraine and European allies.
“There are co-production opportunities that we can do with the Ukrainians, that we can do with the Europeans, to increase the industrial base and support the defence of Ukraine and the defence of Europe,” he said.
Until such arrangements are finalised, the priority remains meeting Ukraine’s immediate needs.
Whitaker said Washington and its allies were focused on ensuring Kyiv has sufficient air defence capabilities ahead of winter “as quickly as possible”, either through allied transfers of surplus interceptors or expanded US production.
Change of heart?
Whitaker’s remarks follow weeks of mixed signals from the Trump administration over whether the US will allow Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptors under licence, a step long sought by Kyiv to reduce reliance on external supply given the global shortage of the systems.
Manufactured in the US by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, Patriots have been widely relied upon by US allies, including in the Gulf, where the US’s war on Iran has greatly depleted the global Patriot stockpile.
According to Kyiv, while US-based defence manufacturer Lockheed Martin produces roughly about 60-65 interceptors per month, Russia is producing around 120 ballistic missiles monthly alongside other systems. Moscow has also increasingly tailored its strikes to exploit gaps in Ukraine’s air defence.
During a NATO summit in Ankara on 8 July, President Donald Trump said the US would grant Ukraine a production licence for the interceptors. But on 31 July, he said no final decision had been taken, describing the move as “a big step” given the sensitivity of transferring advanced defence technology.
This has left Ukrainian allies and defence planners uncertain just as Ukraine braces for another winter of intensified Russian missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure.
The issue was also discussed at a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington on 29 July, when the two leaders explored options for expanding Ukraine’s domestic defence production and other ideas that could help the war effort.
Zelenskyy said the talks covered potential licences for Patriot interceptor production, but Trump gave no further clarity on timing.
Trump’s special representatives, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are likely to visit Kyiv in the second half of August, according to media reports.
Zelenskyy said on 28 July that they could arrive within the next two weeks, with the trip expected to coincide with events marking the 35th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence.
He said he wanted to discuss ways to revive peace talks and to give the envoys a first-hand look at the situation in Ukraine.
Kyiv’s urgent calculus
For Kyiv, the licence question is as much about long-term resilience as immediate survival.
Ukrainian officials argue that co-production would both accelerate supply and embed Ukraine more firmly within the western defence-industrial base. Zelenskyy has made expanding domestic defence production a central pillar of Ukraine’s war strategy, including deeper cooperation with US defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin.
In meetings with US senators during his Washington visit, Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine’s most pressing need remains a steady flow of interceptors throughout the rest of 2026, potentially financed by European partners.
