The European Union is growing optimistic about the imminent lifting of Hungary’s contentious veto on a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, ending a political dispute that has severely undermined the bloc’s collective decision-making.
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Following a bruising defeat at the polls, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has indicated he will remove his veto as soon as Russian oil flows resume through the Druzhba pipeline, which is at the core of the controversy.
Orbán cited “indications” from Brussels that flows will return soon.
EU ambassadors could resolve the matter as early as Wednesday if Orbán relents. Only one regulation, which depends on unanimity, is pending approval.
“We expect some positive decisions tomorrow on the €90 billion loan,” High Representative Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday morning.
“Ukraine really needs this loan, and it is also a sign that Russia cannot outlast Ukraine. This is extremely important at this moment,” she added.
Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commissioner for the Economy, said he could not exclude the veto might be lifted “this week” but stressed that, even if it remains in place on the interim, Kyiv would have sustainable financing until end of May or early June thanks to the contributions of other allies that made up for the postponement in the loan.
A transition of power in Budapest is expected to take place in early May.
“There may be some movement still while Orbán is in office. In a sense, I don’t want to claim it too prominently before I see it happening, because we have seen many delays and a lot of back and forth. If it happens, great,” Dombrovskis said on Tuesday during a briefing with journalists, attended by Euronews.
“If not, we will have to wait for a new prime minister. But all in all, I think it’s clear that we will be able to unblock this situation. If it happens this week, all the better.”
For 2026, Brussels intends to gradually disburse €45 billion, with €16.7 billion allocated for financial support and €28.3 billion for military support. Payments will be subject to the approval of reforms and conditions by the Ukrainian government.
If Kyiv weakens the fight against corruption, it could risk a suspension in payments.
The remaining €45 billion will go for 2027 and cover two thirds of Ukraine’s funding needs. Western allies are expected to cover the outstanding one third.
‘Difficult to understand’
The dispute between Budapest and Kyiv over the Druzhba pipeline has also halted the approval of a fresh sanctions package of EU sanctions against Moscow, which should include a full ban on maritime services for Russian oil tankers.
The ban is intended to raise material costs and chip away at the Kremlin’s revenues, which are crucial to finance the invasion of Ukraine.
Malta and Greece, however, worry the prohibition will harm their flagging and shipping industries, respectively, and want the far-reaching measure to be introduced only if there is an agreement at the G7 level.
“The broader agreement we can reach on sanctions, the more effective is it. So, from that point of view, action at the G7 level is more effective than action just at the EU level,” Dombrovskis said in reply to a Euronews question.
“But we should not be making ourselves dependent on this. We should not put ourselves in a situation where if there’s no G7 agreement, we are not able to act ourselves,” he added. “In this case, we need to act as an EU and sustain and increase this sanctions pressure on Russia.”
The G7 agreement is far from guaranteed after the White House extended sanctions relief for Russian oil, a measure introduced to cope with the price spike set off by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
After the first waiver expired earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced he could no longer renew it, raising hopes among Europeans. Only to change course two days later, issuing a new waiver until 16 May.
Dombrovskis, who met with Bessent last week before the new waiver was introduced, said the policy U-turn was “difficult to understand”.
“Now it’s not the time to release pressure on Russia. We need to continue with sanctions, we need to continue with the G7 price cap, because it’s exactly what Russia is benefiting from: higher oil prices,” the Commissioner said.
“I had no indication that the new waiver was being prepared. But, indeed, a couple of days later, there was a new waiver,” he went on. “From that point of view, it’s difficult to understand the logic of coming (up) with these waivers.”
As a result of the US-Iran war, Russia’s revenue from crude and refined products rose sharply to $19 billion (€16 billion) in March compared to $9.7 billion (€8.2 billion) in February, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The injection has helped the Kremlin cushion a trend of economic stagnation that left a deficit of $60 billion (€50.9 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, beyond projections.
