While cost plays a part, Spoonley said international experience shows it’s nowhere near the only reason.
“Some countries have tried to correct it, but what’s interesting is it’s very difficult to find any pro-natal, pro-birth policies that actually work.
“For example, Hungary introduced a policy in 2019 that [women with] four or more children, didn’t have to pay income tax. Germany and Japan are throwing a lot of money at the problem as well, and… It hasn’t made any [substantial] difference. “
He said countries are throwing money at trying to make raising children cheaper but it hasn’t stopped fertility decline.
Spoonley said this shows cost isn’t the only factor and societal and cultural changes also have a huge impact.
He added countries need to figure out exactly what’s driving the shift so they can introduce effective policies to combat it because we cannot rely on immigration to fill the gap forever.
“Whenever we get near a population issue, the default position is immigration. We don’t put all the other factors ageing, fertility, decline, regional patterns of growth or decline into the mix,” he added.
Spoonley said creating policies to take financial pressure off parents isn’t a bad thing, but alone it clearly won’t improve fertility rates significantly.
Instead, he said we need to have robust conversations about our fertility rate and potential solutions.
“I definitely think we should make it cost-neutral to have children but we need to be clear that it won’t necessarily alter fertility decline.
“We need to talk about population policy…We need to talk about the rapid ageing of New Zealand. We need to talk about fertility decline. We need to talk about the fact that we’re forecasting very significant growth in the top half of the North Island so that eventually three-quarters of all New Zealanders will live in the top half of the North Island and, of course, immigration. We need to talk about all of those things and what we can do and what we want to do.”
What have other countries done?
While New Zealand might not be having the types of conversations Spoonley wants, other countries are going further than just conversation.
As Spoonley mentioned, if you’re a mother of four or more kids in Hungary you don’t have to pay income tax for life. The country also has subsidy programs to help large families buy a car, a loan program to help families with at least two children buy homes and every woman under 40 is eligible for a preferential loan when she first gets married.
South Korea is following a similar trend offering new parents a cash payment when their baby is born and then ongoing support each month until their child finishes elementary school.
Hong Kong meanwhile is offering cash bonuses of US$2557 for each newborn along with easier access to subsiding housing for families with children.
Japan has had policies aimed at boosting their birth rates since the 1990s and Italy is looking to follow Hungary’s lead.
While New Zealand might not have specific policies to encourage Kiwis to have children, successive governments have attempted to make it less expensive.
The previous Labour Government boosted support for parents by increasing working for families payments and topping up the Best Start scheme.
This month National revealed the FamilyBoost subsidy will begin on July 1 and will mean parents get a rebate on childcare costs of up to $75 a week.
But based on international evidence and the Government’s current approach, it’s unlikely New Zealand’s fertility rate will jump any time soon and it’s unlikely to convince people like Zoe who don’t want kids to change their mind.