It’s getting closer to the time when locking in a longer-term home loan rate might be worth it, ANZ economists say, with retail rates having dropped further than the official cash rate (OCR) might fall, and global rates pushing up.
In their latest property market update, ANZ economists noted interest rates had fallen again through October, led by a fall in floating rates which followed the OCR down by 50 basis points.
“Large falls were also seen in the median six-month and one-year rates – down 0.36% and 0.3%, respectively – but two- and three-year rates fell only 0.1% and four- and five-year rates were unchanged.”
Most people refixing their home loans at the moment are now fixing for six months.
But at the moment six-month rates are between 6.39% and 6.5% at the main banks, compared to 5.79% to 5.99% for one year.
ANZ’s economists said paying more now in order to fix for a cheaper, longer rate in future had some merit in an environment where rates were falling.
“We think it’s again worth considering this month. But caution is needed; we are inching closer to the point where mortgage rates are likely to find a base. Markets are already pricing in OCR cuts all the way down to three percent, which is below our forecast, so timing will be key for anyone who wants to pick the proverbial bottom.”
They said global rates were rising, which meant wholesale rates were likely to bottom out “fairly soon”.
“As pleasing as it is to ‘beat the market’, at some stage, those who have a fixed term expiring soon, no matter when it was entered into, will need to decide whether to keep hoping that mortgage rates keep falling or make the decision to fix for longer.”
They said while more went into rate setting than just the OCR and wholesale rates, the time was coming when the pace of falls was likely to slow and they would start to find a base.
“Longer-term rates could even rise if global long-term interest rates keep rising.”
ASB last week offered customers a one-year rate of 5.59% but this week could not go lower than 5.79%.
ASB said it considered a number of factors when setting rates, including market conditions, wholesale rates and the rates offered to savers and term depositors.
Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said the average one-year special rate had fallen 0.99% in September from the peak.
But over that same period, the OCR only moved 0.25%.
“That’s almost four times as much of a fall in actual on special interest rates than the OCR.”
He agreed with ANZ that meant significant falls in the OCR had already been priced in to the rates on offer from banks – so a 50 basis-point fall this month, for example, would not mean a 50bp fall was likely in most loan terms.
“It would be much easier to communicate if retail rates dropped in lockstep with the OCR, but they don’t. There’s not necessarily a full passthrough.
“Some rates might be front-loaded, some might be back-loaded. It’s not that the OCR goes down and interest rates definitely go down by the same amount at the same time.”
Competitive pressures could also affect the rates offered, Olsen said.
“I also think, given you’ve still got sluggish housing activity and sales, there is potential that banks are having to be more competitive and offering sharper interest rates to lure or retain customers.
“If that’s the case, if you start to see interest rates come down and a bit more activity in the housing market, banks might not have to be quite as competitive to attract the lending dollar.”
There was a need for conversations about “where to next”, he said.
“Before the pandemic, people would just fix for a short time because they thought, ‘Give it a year and it’ll probably fall again.’
“I’m not saying that’s not going to work, but there’s a need for more caution around where the outlook is, especially given how much retail rates seem to have moved ahead of the OCR.
“It might be that the Reserve Bank thinks we needed to take the foot off the brake a bit, and we have – but maybe we don’t have to do a huge amount more. It’s not quite as assured that things are definitely going to return to people’s expectation of what a lower interest rate should be.”
Interest rates before the Covid-19 pandemic might have been “abnormally low” anyway, Olsen said.
“We are all trying to find where the new Goldilocks zone is – it’s unlikely to be the same as before.”
