National has fallen sharply in the latest 1News Verian poll while Labour has climbed, giving the left bloc the numbers to form a government.
National was down 3% and Labour up 4% in the poll, which surveyed 1000 eligible voters and ran from February 3 to 7.
It found that if an election were held today, the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 61 seats — enough to govern.
The right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First would have 60 seats, one short as a result of an overhang.
National has fallen to 34% compared to their previous result of 37% recorded in December, while Labour has surged to 33% — up from the 29% they recorded in the last poll.
The Greens were steady and ACT were up 1% to 9%. New Zealand First were back to teetering on the edge of the threshold, polling at 5%, down 1%.
Te Pāti Māori has also dropped significantly, falling by 3% from their previous record showing of 7% which came after the national hīkoi.
The poll comes after the quiet summer period in politics though Prime Minister Christopher Luxon reshuffled his Cabinet in January with key changes in health and transport among other portfolios.
Today’s numbers mean that National would have 43 seats in Parliament, down 6 on their current allocation, Labour would have 42, up 8, The Greens would have 13, down 1, ACT would have 11, the same number as they have at present.
New Zealand First would have 6, down 2, and Te Pāti Māori would also have 6, as they do at present. That assumes they win the 6 Māori seats that they won at the 2023 election.
Parliament’s size would reduce by 2 down to 121 seats. There would still be an overhang of 1 seat as a result of Te Pāti Māori’s result.
Of those asked, 12% of people said they didn’t know or refused to say who they would vote for — up 2% on the previous poll.
Poll results with comment from 1News Political Editor Maiki Sherman. (Source: 1News)
Economic fears, PM slips
The poll also found there was growing concern about the state of the economy and delivered a further blow to Luxon.
Economic optimism fell by 5% on the December Verian poll, down to 36%, while economic pessimism was up 3% to 25%.
Those polled were also asked whether they thought the Government was going in the right or wrong direction. A total of 39% said it was going in the right direction, but 50% said the country was going in the wrong direction. The remaining 11% didn’t know or preferred not to say.
In the preferred prime minister stakes, National’s Luxon has taken a fall, down by 2% to 22%. It was his lowest result in the polls since he became Prime Minister.
Labour’s Chris Hipkins also remains low but has risen by 2% to 17%.
The rest of the leaders all remained steady, including David Seymour on 6%, Chlöe Swarbrick on 5%, and Winston Peters also on 5%.
Hana Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke, Jacinda Ardern and Rawiri Waititi all received honourable mentions with 1% each.
Poll results report from 1News Political Reporter Benedict Collins and comment from 1News Political Editor Maiki Sherman. (Source: 1News)
‘Plan is working’ – Luxon
Luxon acknowledged his party’s and his own poll numbers saying it was a tough time for Kiwis but claiming “the plan was starting to work”.
“They’re doing it tough with the cost of living, we’ve made some progress on that, you know, tax relief, inflation relief, interest rate relief starting to come through.”
But he said some of those challenges were still the previous government’s fault. “We’ve inherited six years of economic mismanagement,” he said.
He rejected Hipkins’ claims that this would be a one-term government, saying he doesn’t listen to the Labour leader as he left the country in a “hell of a mess”.
‘Out of his depth’ — Hipkins
But Hipkins said: “I think New Zealanders can see that Christopher Luxon’s out of his depth, he’s not showing leadership, he’s not making the tough decisions that he needs to make. Winston Peters and David Seymour are running rings around him.”
Despite the positive poll result, Hipkins acknowledged there was a long time to go before the next election. “We’ve got a lot of hard work ahead, we have to go out there and work for every single vote, we are not taking anything for granted.”
ACT was the only coalition party to see a rise in the poll. But its leader Seymour says there’s more work to do. “Well, there’s still 91% of voters not voting for ACT and I welcome them in.”
He said he believed the overall drop for the coalition was because people’s decisions were affected by the economy. “I think in the long term all three governing parties will do better as the economy improves. Right now we’re doing the spade work.”
‘Te Tiriti offers us the best protections’ — Davidson
Greens co-leader Marama Davidson was back at Parliament today for the first time in months, after undergoing treatment for breast cancer.
Asked what the Greens needed to do to get their numbers up, Davidson said: “We heard from Waitangi, from people on the ground, a focus on the way that Te Tiriti offers us the best protections for taking care of each other, for taking care of our planet for generations to come.”
She criticised the Prime Minister’s decision not to attend Waitangi.
“He’s not showing up for our communities. We need leadership around kotahitanga and that is the leadership that the Greens will focus on.”
Davidson was also critical of the Government’s approach to the economy.
“There is no economy when you are rolling back climate protections. There is no economy when you are opening up lands and seas to exploitation and mining.There is no economy where people are living in poverty and without a home.
“We know that the best economic development is when we are prioritising the wellbeing and taking care of people and our place.”
‘Extreme times’ — Ngarewa-Packer
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer refuted her party was sliding in the polls despite dropping by 3 points to 4%.
“I think we’ll always have, you know, extreme times after activations, but the reality is that since we’ve gotten in, we’ve been… trending stable, we’ve been steady on 4-5%.”
She said her party has been attacked by the coalition.
“Every time we’re in the House, you know, [the] strategy is to attack Te Pāti Māori. You’ve got Winston’s strategy is to attack Māori; Shane Jones’s strategy is to attack Debbie and we’ve got Te Pāti Māori getting as many seats as New Zealand First.
“I think that people are over the politicking that they’re bringing — we’re not US, we’re not Trump.”
When asked about Labour ruling out introducing a Te Tiriti commissioner if they were to form a government, Ngarewa-Packer said she believed that her policy announcement had been misunderstood.
“What I did hear Chris Hipkins say at Waitangi is that he would be open to having a conversation about how we protect Te Tiriti, so at no stage did we introduce that as a vet. That was introduced as protection for Te Tiriti.”
New Zealand First has not responded to the results of the poll. Leader Winston Peters has commonly said previously that he didn’t comment on polls.
Party vote
National – 34% (down 3% since December)
Labour – 33% (up 4%)
Green – 10% (steady)
ACT – 9% (up 1%)
New Zealand First – 5% (down 1%)
Te Pāti Māori – 4% (down 3%)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 2% (steady)
Freedoms New Zealand – 1% (steady)
Don’t know / refused to say – 12% (up 2%)
Seats in the House
National – 43
Labour – 42
Green – 13
ACT – 11
New Zealand First – 6
Te Pāti Māori – 6
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 22% (down 2%)
Chris Hipkins – 17% (up 2%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (steady)
David Seymour – 6% (steady)
Winston Peters – 5% (steady)
See the main poll results and methodology here and the govt direction results here
Between February 3 and February 7, 2025, 1000 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
