National and New Zealand First are on the rise in the latest 1News Verian poll, with the coalition having the numbers to again form a government.
Labour on the other hand has fallen by 1% in the poll, which surveyed 1000 eligible voters and ran from March 29 to April 2.
If an election were to be held today, the right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First would have 64 seats, enough to form a coalition, while the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 58 seats.
That’s a turnaround on February’s poll, which put Labour and the left bloc in the driving seat.
National is up 2% to 36% today compared to their February result, while Labour has slipped 1% to 32%.
New Zealand First hits new heights – up 2% to 7%. This is the highest the party has been in our polls since September of 2017.
The Greens and ACT are steady on 10% and 9% respectively.
Te Pāti Māori continue to slide, down by a further 1% to 3%. As recently as December they were on 7%.
The public also appears to be feeling a bit better about the economy.
Economic optimism is up by 3% to 39% on our last poll, while economic pessimism has gone down from 25% to 21%.
Today’s numbers mean National would have 44 seats in Parliament, down 5 on their current allocation, Labour would have 40, up 6, The Greens would have 12, down 2, ACT would have 11, the same number as they have at present.
New Zealand First would have 9, up 1, and Te Pāti Māori would also have 6, as they do at present. There would be an extra two seats in a 122-seat Parliament as a result of an overhang, assuming that Te Pāti Māori held on to their six electorate seats.
‘Making good progress’
NZ First and leader Winston Peters is the big winner in the latest 1News Verian poll. (Source: 1News)
Luxon responded to the results, saying: “There’s a lot of polls. I don’t comment on them. I’m focused very much on making sure I get things done and deliver for New Zealanders. We’re making some good progress. We’re turning the corner. It’s good to see economic growth coming back. But there’s a lot more for us to do.”
Hipkins said polls “bounce around at this point in the electoral cycle”. He added: “We’ve still got a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next election. We’re only halfway through the Parliamentary term.
“The polls are showing that Labour’s support is rebounding from the last election, but we know we’ve got more work to do. We haven’t started announcing major policies yet. We will be doing more of that, certainly in the second half of this year and heading into next year.”
Meanwhile, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters said, “I never talk about polls because I don’t trust them.” He added that “real” polls to him were the packed public meetings that his party held.
Te Pāti Māori leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said: “Our polling, we always say this, is actually out on the ground. Our polling is who turns up to support kaupapa. How it is that advising and interacting with us, whether it be at the marae or whether it be on social media.”
Luxon and Hipkins trending up
In the preferred prime minister stakes, neither Christopher Luxon or Chris Hipkins are particularly popular, but both are trending in the right direction.
Luxon is up by 1% to 23%, while Hipkins has climbed 3% to 20%.
Winston Peters is now the third preferred option, going up 2% to 7%, in line with his party’s numbers.
Chlöe Swarbrick has fallen from 6% to 4% and the public seems to be going cold on David Seymour too. He’s down from 6% to 3%.
Rounding out the honourable mentions on 1% are former PM Jacinda Ardern, Te Pāti Māori’s Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Education Minister Erica Stanford, Labour’s Kieran McAnulty and a new entrant – Health Minister Simeon Brown.
ACT leader Seymour reacted to today’s numbers, saying: “When we were down, I said people are voting on the economy today. I think the economy is just starting to cautiously improve, and maybe these polls reflect that as well.”
On his preferred PM rating he added: “I suspect it’s what they call statistical noise … If Chris Hipkins has gone up, I’d say that’s probably the voters taking pity on him.”
Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said: “I’ve said, since time immemorial, since I first became a politician, that our job is not to watch the polls, but to realise that we are the polls, to do absolutely everything that we can, to mobilise our communities to claim power so that we get an economy that works for people and planet, as opposed to exploiting and exhausting both.”
India trip, school lunch troubles
The poll comes after the Prime Minister’s trip to India, where negotiations began in another attempt to secure a free trade deal, and the Government’s school lunch programme remained prominent after one of the providers went into liquidation.
More recently, the story of Green MP Benjamin Doyle’s alternative social media account that was criticised by NZ First Leader Winston Peters made headlines.
One factor not captured in the poll is the effect of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement last week, which has had a negative impact on the markets worldwide and came after this survey was carried out.
Full results
Party vote
National – 36% (up 2% since December)
Labour – 32% (down 1%)
Green – 10% (steady)
ACT – 9% (steady)
New Zealand First – 7% (up 2%)
Te Pāti Māori – 3% (down 1%)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 2% (steady)
Freedoms New Zealand – 1% (steady)
Don’t know / refused to say – 12% (steady)
Seats in the House
National – 44
Labour – 40
Green – 12
ACT – 11
New Zealand First – 9
Te Pāti Māori – 6
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 23% (up 1%)
Chris Hipkins – 20% (up 3%)
Winston Peters – 7% (up 2%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 4% (down 2%)
David Seymour – 3% (down 3%)
See the poll results and methodology here
Between March 29 and April 2 2025, 1000 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (500) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
