More cheaper houses are changing hands, as the housing market finds its feet, new data indicates.
Property research firm Cotality has released data that shows property values across the country lifted 0.2% in October, the second monthly rise in a row.
Across the main centres, Auckland fell again, down 0.2%, with Hamilton flat in October. Tauranga and Wellington both lifted by 0.2%, while Christchurch, up 0.4%, and Dunedin, up 0.7%, were stronger.
The national median value is now $811,662, but the median sale price for the third recent quarter was $761,000, indicating that more homes in the lower price brackets are changing hands.
Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said that would fit the data available.
“First-time buyers are pretty active, mortgaged investors are pretty active,” he said. “First-time buyers do tend to pay a bit below everyone else, so it stands to reason that the prices being paid would be a bit lower given their strength.”
The median price paid by first-home buyers in the third quarter was $700,000.
He said the second consecutive monthly lift in values could signal the start of a market recovery.
“It’s a cliché, but upturns obviously have to start somewhere, and the recent emergence of small increases in property values would certainly be consistent with the falls in mortgage rates over the past year or so.
“That being said, sentiment remains tilted to the cautious end of the spectrum and, of course, the economy and labour market are still subdued.
“Meanwhile, the gains in September and October were clearly reasonably small in the grand scheme of things.”
Auckland’s values were down 2% over 12 months, reflecting weakness in the North Shore, central Auckland and Manukau.
“The stock of available listings across the supercity has eased downwards this year, potentially lessening buyers’ pricing power to a degree, but the new-build pipeline remains active, and several economic sentiment indicators or surveys for Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland are still subdued,”he said. “This cautious mood is clearly pervading the property market too.”
The Wellington region was down 1.4% overall.
“Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington is another area where the stock of available listings has drifted lower this year, but the market still remains in favour of buyers, with plenty of choice out there. The subdued state of the Wellington economy and muted confidence both remain a factor in its sluggish housing market too.
“That said, the hints of growth in Wellington City could be something to watch in the next few months.”
Davidson said it was important not to read too much into the data, because there had been a long period of relative weakness before the increases.
“There’s still a bit of uncertainty out there in terms of the economy.”
Things were pointing towards the housing market turning around, he said.
“Listings have been relatively high, but now they’re coming down. Interest rates have been relatively high, but they’re coming down pretty quickly and it’s passing through to borrowers.
“It looks like the economy’s slowly starting to turn around, with better prospects into 2026.”
He said prices would likely lift 5%over next year.
“More than this year, but still not much.”
In most parts of the country, sales activity was back to virtually normal levels, he said, but given the increase in the housing stock in recent years relative to population and the introduction of debt-to-income caps, a boom was unlikely.
“Prospective buyers, whether that’s owner-occupiers or investors, will also no doubt be pleased that values remain around 17% below their early 2022 peak – with some likely to be viewing this as a strong opportunity to snap up ‘bargains’ at what might prove to be the low point for the market.”
rnz.co.nz
