Confidence in the New Zealand housing market has risen to its highest level in 15 years, with more people thinking it is a good time to buy.
The latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey indicates 28% of respondents believed it was a good time to buy a property, with recent cuts to the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate, dropping to 2.25% in November from a peak of 5.5% in July 2024.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the housing market was in a sweet spot, with lower interest rates and an increase in property listings, giving buyers more choice and confidence.
“It’s a good place to be for buyers. It’s very much a buyer’s market,” he said.
“We’re seeing a unique window of opportunity for buyers. Low borrowing costs and high housing supply are creating conditions we haven’t seen in over a decade.”
More than half of the survey respondents (54%) expected home loan rates to fall further, compared with 47% in the last quarter, with just one in 10 expecting interest rates to rise.
House price expectations remained subdued, with a net 17% of respondents expecting prices to rise over the next year as high inventory continued to weigh on the market.
“We expect house prices to lift gradually as the economy recovers, but the days of double-digit growth are behind us. For now, buyers have the advantage – and that’s a rare position in New Zealand’s housing market.”
But Tuffley said conditions were likely to change over 2026.
“I think it’s a case of a mild turnaround in the housing market, more than a dramatic one,” he said.
“There’ll be a greater level of sales turnover. The amount of stock on the market will start to reduce, and prices will start to edge up.”
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He said it will be interesting to see how perceptions change in the next survey.
“Because in this last survey, which was in the months August through to October, we saw an increasing number of people expecting mortgage rates to fall over the next 12 months.
“So we’ve now just had the Reserve Bank signal that it thinks it’s done, and that could mean mortgage rates are at the bottom.
“Buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines may find now is the time to act.”
By Nona Pelletier of rnz.co.nz
