Declining interest rates, easing inflation, the recent OCR cut, and a high level of housing stock is set to tilt the market towards favouring buyers, according to new data from RealEstate.co.nz.
Throughout September, housing stock remained high, while average asking prices remained flat.
Average asking price increased year-on-year by 0.2% and 2.7% month-on-month. This marks 20 months of flat asking prices, which realestate.co.nz said is the “longest stretch” of price stability since records began 17 years ago.
“For almost two years, our national average asking price has hovered between $860,000 and $890,000. We’ve never seen prices remain flat for this long,” realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said.
With another OCR review set for October 9, realestate.co.nz said buyers may be eager to act before the market makes another shift.
Williams noted that while high stock levels will take time to clear, market shifts are inevitable: “Although we won’t see the market change overnight, it is cyclical, and eventually, we will see movement. For those waiting for the perfect time to enter the market, this could be the window of opportunity they’ve been hoping for.”
“Property market prices started flattening out in January 2023, when the national average asking price was $879,53. Almost two years later, we are sitting at $870,110.
“This gives buyers and sellers a rare degree of market predictability. Buyers can confidently enter the market, knowing prices have remained steady, while sellers can adjust their expectations based on these consistent trends,” said Williams.
Nationally, stock levels remained elevated in September. The total number of properties up for sale surpassed 30,000 after a slight dip in August.
It’s the first time housing stock exceeded 30,000 in September since 2014, and is roughly 6500 more properties available for sale than in September 2023.
Realestate.co.nz said new listings “surged” in September, rising 18.7% year-on-year and 15.3% month-on-month nationally.
“This marks the highest level of September new listings in three years, highlighting renewed seller confidence.”
Regions with the most significant year-on-year increases in house listings included Gisborne 50.0%, Coromandel 40.2%, Central Otago/Lakes District 40.9%, Wellington 36.1%, Otago 34.1%, and Central North Island 32.5%.
“We typically see an increase in listings as warmer weather encourages sellers to put their homes on the market,” said Williams.
“However, since 2021, spring has had a slower start, with more subdued listing levels during September. This year, we’re seeing a return to more typical spring activity, approaching 10,000 new listings compared to an average of around 7000 in previous years.”
On this data, realestate.co.nz said the increase in new listings suggests the potential for a busier spring season ahead for both buyers and sellers.
