Recent air travel restrictions at several Italian airports due to concerns over fuel shortages linked to the Middle East conflict are raising the alarm that the trend could spread to other airports in the European Union.
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Jet fuel prices have increased by 95% since the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran on 28 February. The war has culminated in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy trade route handling around 20% of global crude oil exports, placing significant strain on global energy markets.
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has severely constrained supplies, with jet fuel—one of the most impacted refined products—facing worsening shortages in April and May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.
While Asia is already feeling the impact of such a price increase — with several flights cancelled due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern imports — Europe could be next.
Scandinavian airline SAS said it will cancel at least 1,000 flights in April.
“The situation is challenging. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken out over 20% of the typical global seaborne jet fuel supply,” George Shaw, senior insight analyst at trade intelligence firm Kpler, told Euronews.
At least 42% of the total seaborne imports into the EU-27 and the United Kingdom passed through the Strait of Hormuz, Shaw added.
Securing supply and domestic refining
However, if countries are able to secure supply, analysts say the disruption will likely be less severe in regions with greater domestic refining capacity, such as Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.
For Europe, the key concern is how well inventories and supply chains can withstand the short to medium-term, as the continent is already running on emergency releases following the IEA’s release of 400 million barrels of oil on 11 March.
The final jet fuel cargoes that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before its closure are projected to arrive at European ports around 10 April, according to Argus Media, a global energy and commodity market intelligence firm. After that, unless the energy chokepoint reopens or adequate alternative routes are secured, incoming volumes may drop significantly.
While this does not necessarily imply an immediate supply disruption, analysts say, it signals the start of a period in which jet fuel’s physical availability could become increasingly uncertain.
Airlines’ response to price hike
Shaw suggested that May could prove “more challenging”, a scenario likely to translate into higher fares, fuel surcharges and cuts to capacity —including the scaling back of unprofitable routes.
“These measures, as a result of the high costs of jet fuel, will lead to a reduction in demand,” Shaw added.
An estimate by Argus Media, based on Eurostat data, suggests that available commercial jet fuel stocks could cover three months in the United Kingdom, four in Portugal, five in Hungary, six in Denmark, seven in Italy and Germany and eight in France and Ireland.
However, these figures are not official government projections and do not fully account for demand shifts, logistical bottlenecks, or airport-specific exposures.
“Any airlines that have not hedged their fuel costs are also at risk, and we have seen that SAS was very quick to reduce the number of flights in response to high prices in March,” Shaw added.
The energy analyst cautioned that even extensive hedging strategies are not immune to price fluctuations. According to Shaw, carriers that only hedge with crude oil or associated financial instruments are exposed to the substantial price gap between crude and jet fuel.
Anita Mendiratta, special adviser to the Secretary General of UN Tourism and an aviation expert, told Euronews that jet fuel can’t be stored in large quantities at airports, as the system relies on continuous deliveries through refineries and pipelines.
“That means even short disruptions can create operational challenges quite quickly, particularly at large hub airports,” Mendiratta said.
Meanwhile, US monthly jet fuel exports to Europe reached their highest level in March, approaching 400,000 tonnes, and the trend is set to continue. However, that volume remains far below the 1,4 million tonnes of jet fuel imported into the EU-27 and the UK in May 2025, highlighting the slow pace at which U.S. exports can help close the shortfall.
“Fuel imports are pivoting towards the US, which is functioning as an alternative source,” Shaw noted, adding that refineries in Europe will also increase jet fuel production to address the shortage.
EU urges member states dialogue
Asked about the jet fuel supply currently available in EU countries, the European Commission recalled that emergency stocks, which are usually a mix of gasoline, kerosene and jet fuel, are decided by member states, noting the EU executive didn’t have enough information as to the available jet fuel supply per EU country.
“We are at the point of having a full picture of where the member states are at the moment. At the next oil coordination group, this will be discussed,” Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, Commission spokesperson, told reporters on Tuesday, referring to the meeting to be held on 8 March.
Before considering any solidarity pool measure to secure jet fuel supply, which needs to be taken in a coordinated manner, Itkonen said the first step is to engage in dialogue with member states.
“These are largely private contracts between airlines and suppliers (…) It’s absolutely essential that we get together with our member states to hear exactly where they are and any further measures will be taken based on the feedback received,” Itkonen added.
