New Zealand’s ports are processing growing cargo volumes, and businesses are restocking, perhaps one sign that an economic recovery may finally be underway after years of false starts.
Port of Auckland chief executive Roger Grey told TVNZ’s You, Me and the Economy special that the port had processed its highest container volumes in nine years last month, with car imports and agricultural equipment flowing through at increased rates.
“The economy’s turned and we’re seeing that now,” he said.
“We’re really seeing the cargo start to flow, and that means people are buying it.”
The growth is reflected across New Zealand’s major ports, including Napier, Tauranga and Lyttelton, Grey said.
Meanwhile, Infometrics economist Gareth Kiernan said a recovery would be led by the agricultural sector rather than the traditional drivers of migration and housing.
“This time around, it’s looking very much like an agricultural-led recovery, strong export incomes, and we are seeing evidence of that coming through, particularly in the South Island,” Kiernan said.
However, he cautioned it would take another 12 months before a potential recovery was widespread enough to be felt across the economy.
Icehouse Ventures chief executive Robbie Paul said New Zealand needed to focus on “weightless exports” like software that could be sold repeatedly without shipping costs.
Company director Rachel Taulelei said New Zealand’s reputation for integrity and sustainability provided advantages in volatile global trade conditions.
The discussion also examined ongoing challenges, with unemployment at 5.3% and job listings down. Chief executive of not-for-profit Tania Pouwhare said young people were struggling to find entry-level work and that it was key to tackle inequality.
“The most important question we can always ask is, the economy is for whom?” she said.
“Demand for support from the likes of Good Shepherd is unprecedented, and it’s the lowest levels of hope that we have recorded from the people that we work with.”
She said economic success in 2026 would look like fewer people needing those services.
For more: Watch You, Me, And the Economy with Jack Tame on TVNZ+
Big call coming tomorrow on OCR
It comes as economists widely expect the Reserve Bank to trim the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points tomorrow, taking it to 2.25%, while leaving the door open for further easing if the economy stumbles.
November’s Monetary Policy Statement will be the last of the year — and the final one under acting Governor Christian Hawkesby before Anna Breman takes over in December.
The OCR currently sits at 2.50%, following a front-loaded 50bp cut in October.
Markets have largely priced in tomorrow’s move, but attention will turn to Breman’s first meeting in February — and whether green shoots in the economy will be enough to keep rates on hold
What will tomorrow’s OCR decision bring?
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the central bank was likely to pair the cut with a message that it remained ready to cut further if conditions deteriorated.
“Going forward, we anticipate the economy will show more convincing signs of recovery and that the RBNZ can stay on hold in 2026 at 2.25%.
“But if recovery underwhelms, the RBNZ will cut further.”
He said the forecasts and commentary in the monetary policy statement would “leave the door wide open for further easing if it is needed”.
BNZ chief economist Mike Jones said the move will likely come with a cautious tone. Meanwhile, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner agreed the Reserve Bank will want to keep its options open, even if no further cuts are expected next year.
