The count has only just begun and the figures are still preliminary, but the Sigma Dos exit poll for ‘Canal Sur’ already points to a clear winner: Juanma Moreno would again secure an absolute majority in Andalusia.
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The PP would take between 56 and 59 seats, roughly matching the 58 they held in the outgoing parliament and above the 55 needed for an absolute majority. If confirmed, Moreno would govern alone for another four years, without having to sit down to negotiate with anyone.
The PSOE, led in Andalusia by María Jesús Montero, by contrast, is failing to draw in votes. The survey gives it between 26 and 29 seats, below the current 30, which were already the worst result in the party’s history in a region it ran for almost four decades in a row. Montero, who entered the campaign while still serving as finance minister, appears not to have managed to stem the haemorrhage.
Vox would remain largely unchanged, on between 13 and 15 seats compared with the 14 it holds now, without growing enough to be decisive. To its left, the Por Andalucía alliance would be hovering around 5 or 6 seats, practically the same as now, while the surprise of the night could be Adelante Andalucía, which would go from 2 seats to between 4 and 5 representatives. These are the figures from a poll, not final results, but the direction of travel is very clear.
The election in Spain’s most populous region is being read as a political barometer ahead of the general election scheduled for 2027, in a context marked by fatigue with the national government and several corruption investigations involving the president’s inner circle and former aides.
Andalusia, with close to nine million inhabitants, has broad powers in key areas such as healthcare, education and housing, making this election a decisive test within Spain’s decentralised system. A traditional socialist stronghold for almost four decades, the region has been governed since 2019 by the Popular Party.
Polling stations opened at 9:00 and stayed open until 20:45 because of a problem at three polling stations, on a day being followed particularly closely both regionally and nationally.
A total of 163,510 Andalusians voted in advance, according to official data. The president of the regional government and PP candidate, Juanma Moreno, has already cast his ballot in Málaga, where he arrived accompanied by his wife. The PP goes into the race as favourite to retain power in the region, although it is not yet clear whether it will secure enough seats to govern alone. That scenario would open the door for Vox to once again play a decisive role, as has already happened in other regions such as Extremadura, Aragón and Castilla y León.
A significant defeat
For the socialists, a defeat in Andalusia would be particularly significant. The PSOE candidate is María Jesús Montero, a former deputy prime minister and finance minister, whom the PP has placed at the centre of its attacks, linking her both to the management of the central government and to the corruption cases engulfing the party.
The socialist candidate cast her vote in Seville. Speaking to the media on Sunday morning, she said: “This is an extremely important day for us to be able to decide our future. Nobody should stay at home.”
During the campaign, the PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has urged voters to back his party on the grounds that a victory in Andalusia would have a double effect: consolidating political change in the region and strengthening the alternative to Sánchez’s government.
The PP has not ruled out deals with Vox, as it has already done in other regions, placing it in a different position from other European conservative parties that keep their distance from the far right.
For his part, Sánchez has in recent days called for the mobilisation of progressive voters to prevent Vox from entering the Andalusian government, presenting Montero’s candidacy as a solid option for the region.
Other candidates have also already exercised their right to vote. José Ignacio García, of Adelante Andalucía, went to a polling station in Jerez de la Frontera accompanied by his mother. “Today we are all equal, we all have the same power and we have to make the most of it,” he said after casting his ballot.
