Analysis: Auckland turned its back on Labour at the last election. Rebuilding that relationship is critical for the party’s hopes of victory in 2026, writes 1News political editor Maiki Sherman.
Labour got a bruising at the last election, but nothing would have hurt the party more than the support it lost across Auckland that day.
Home to the biggest voter population base, the super city is viewed as the super battleground in New Zealand politics.
Auckland is also home to large swathes of traditional Labour Party supporters usually ripe for the picking come election day, such as migrant, Māori and Pasifika voters. These are the core supporters Labour needs to target over the next couple of years, simply to rebuild its base. It will then need a few more tricks up its sleeve to attract a broader range of voters.
Courting the Auckland vote
The Auckland predicament is one party leader Chris Hipkins recognised early in the dreaded election defeat post-mortem. To his credit, he moved quite quickly to staunch that wound to stop further support bleeding out.
Hipkins claims to have spent at least two days a fortnight in Auckland in recent months, engaging with communities and businesses on the ground. Labour also held its two-day mid-winter caucus retreat in Auckland this week.
The event is a new addition to the party’s calendar. While critics will argue it’s nothing more than an empty drum-banging exercise so far out from the next ballot, it’s actually a clever – and easy – strategic move.
It garners media and therefore public attention; it makes Labour look as though it’s learned some tough lessons and is intent on listening; and it brings the caucus together for a bit of badly needed team building for a group that’s landed back on the cross benches after six years on the coveted ninth floor of the Beehive.
Learning from last year’s mistakes?
The biggest criticism that has been lobbed against Labour this year has been its ability to assume the power of invisibility, especially at the start of the year.
As the newly formed coalition government faced pressure on some of its policy direction, the main opposition party largely had to be cajoled into emerging from its summer slumber to respond.
It echoed a lack of visibility from Labour in the lead-up to the election that one punter raised in New Lynn when 1News gauged the mood of those in the so-called flipped electorates.
Other Auckland seats that turned from red to blue on election night included Maungakiekie, Northcote, Upper Harbour, and Mt Roskill. Even Mt Albert, the old electorate of former Prime Ministers Dame Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark, was only narrowly held by Labour by a measly 18 votes.
The election campaign failure for Labour largely boiled down to two issues.
One, the party had a terrible lead-in with a carousel of chaos as one MP after the other fell by the wayside.
Two, Labour bore the brunt of nationwide fatigue over the Covid-19 pandemic response – the extended Auckland lockdowns, in particular.
While some Aucklanders will have had no qualms with the decisions around lockdowns, it would be naïve to think that was not pivotal in the party’s undoing.
Hipkins has acknowledged this was one of the major grudges held against Labour and you don’t have to search hard to find voters who still haven’t forgiven the party.
In that respect, time is a great healer and Labour at least has two-and-a-half years to help Auckland voters get over it.
Refreshing the Labour line-up
![Labour bore the brunt of nationwide fatigue over the Covid-19 pandemic response, writes Maiki Sherman](https://tvnz-1-news-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com/resizer/v2/chris-hipkins-concedes-election-AB7R6ZM3KRGVTC5UIC5F3DASOY.jpg?auth=2fb118c02461eb9a5cc3ddbfab8e6c9b451a6a5ca905d5c0c59dfed0c71bdd6f&quality=70&width=767&height=431&focal=620%2C254)
That help almost always comes in the form of a refreshed party policy perspective and line-up.
On the latter, Labour will need to help voters forget the so-called bad old days with a portfolio shakeup. This is not so much a matter of if, but when.
Almost every single former Labour minister has held on to their political pet portfolios. It’s understandable – letting go can be hard. The party also wants stability in its first few months of being back in opposition. Those MPs themselves have said they have unfinished business and plenty still to offer.
But that can’t be said for all of them.
To expect such a stale proposition to continue beyond this year may only lead to a ho-hum response from the public. Labour’s unwillingness to refresh itself and offer voters at least a semi-renewed lineup won’t leave them much to get excited about.
This is something senior Labour MPs will need to consider carefully. If they truly believe their political aspirations are not of self but of selfless intentions, then they will need to ask themselves if the same-same with a few tweaks at the edges will truly be enough to demonstrate change.
The old adage ‘it’s not you, it’s me’ simply doesn’t apply in politics, especially when dealing with election results. It was you, all of you, and the only question is how many can stay on to achieve a better outcome next time.
Labour holding mid-winter caucus retreat as the party looks to rebuild support in key Auckland electorates.
This will inevitably be a question the party will need to ask in relation to the leader himself. While Hipkins is adamant he’s in it for the long haul, it ultimately won’t be up to him. There will come a time when the Labour caucus needs to decide if they truly believe he can lead them to victory in 2026.
A big part of that will be voter sentiment towards Hipkins, a leader who has very close association to the pandemic lockdown decisions as the former Covid-19 Recovery Minister. So, whether Labour can put that issue to bed over the coming year or two is as crucial for the party as it is for Hipkins.
The other question is whether Hipkins, the boy from the Hutt, is relatable enough to the voters Labour needs to court. Hipkins has time to lay down a strong foundation, but the question will inevitably emerge.
As for policy, even the most exciting offering expected from Labour was a non-event at the mid-winter caucus this week. A wealth tax or a capital gains tax? Unfortunately, both Phil Twyford and David Parker, a duo deep in that debate, were absent from the Auckland retreat to at least answer the hypothetical.
For now, Labour at least seems to have finally moved out of its summer daze and, having sufficiently licked its wounds, is now gearing up to resemble a more organised opposition. But there’s plenty of big decisions ahead as it maps out its strategy for 2026.