More New Zealanders are opposed than support the Treaty Principles Bill according to a new 1News Verian poll, but a significant number say they don’t know enough about it.
The poll, which surveyed 1006 eligible voters and ran from 30 November to December 4, found that 23% supported the bill while 36% were opposed.
A slightly larger group – 39% – said they didn’t know enough about the bill, and 2% preferred not to say.
The result comes after the proposed legislation passed its first reading in Parliament last month. It is now sitting at select committee with submissions closing in the new year.
National and New Zealand First have repeatedly ruled out supporting the bill beyond its first reading.
A new 1News Verian poll asked if people supported or opposed the Bill. (Source: 1News)
But ACT leader David Seymour has been hopeful that the select committee process would provide grounds for his coalition partners, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and NZ First leader Winston Peters, to change their minds.
The first reading of the bill caused heated debate in the House, which saw a haka performed at the end of the debate.
Speaker Gerry Brownlee said today the conduct was “grossly disorderly” and referred Te Pāti Māori MPs Rawiri Waititi, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, as well as Labour’s Peeni Henare, to the Privileges Committee.
A hīkoi of tens of thousands of people, organised by a Te Pāti Māori staff member, arrived at Parliament on November 19, several days after the first reading had passed.
‘Not surprised’
Reacting to the poll result, Seymour – the architect of the bill – said he was not surprised that more people are opposed than support the bill.
“The biggest result in this poll is people who would like to know more,” he said. “And that’s why I think it’s important to talk about what’s in this bill and that’s not what some of our opponents have tried to characterise it.”
Seymour denied his bill is causing division but said “it’s revealed the division that was inherent in successive governments’ policy of seeing the Treaty as a partnership between two races”.
He said he believes more people are supportive of the principles than the bill itself.
Also responding to the result, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said she’s pleased by the numbers. She called the bill “atrocious”, but she acknowledged there are people who need to learn more about it.
“There’s 39% undecided and I think that goes to show there’s more that need to understand,” she said. “There’s not a lot that understand why the principles came about in 1987, that it was done in order to stop the government of the time selling off state-owned assets, so here we are again in 2024 with the same proposition by a government that wants to fast track and mine and sell off and privatise.”
‘Tangata whenua deserve better’
Ngarewa-Packer left her strongest criticism for the Prime Minister, addressing her comments to him: “You should do more to make sure there’s harmony that’s coming into this country, especially during a cost-of-living crisis and our tangata whenua deserve better from you. We had a whole lot of your own supporters who don’t support you. This is a shameful way for you to be leading Aotearoa.”
Luxon said: “We just agree to disagree [with ACT] on it. You know it’s been a principle where we have different positions on it for different reasons.
“You don’t solve 184 years of discussion or debate about the Treaty – which I think has made us a better country – wrestling and grappling with it through the simple stroke of a pen through a simplistic Treaty Principles Bill. What you do is pick up each of the issues on a case by case and you work your way through it.”
Full Results
The poll asked people about the Treaty Principles Bill currently before Parliament:
Do you support or oppose the bill or not know enough to say?
Support – 23%
Oppose – 36%
Don’t know enough about the bill – 39%
Prefer not to say – 2%
Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (23%) to support the bill were:
ACT Party supporters – 77%
New Zealand First supporters – 48%
Men aged 55+ – 40%
National Party supporters – 30%
Those groups of eligible voters who were more likely than average (36%) to oppose the bill were:
Green Party supporters – 68%
Māori – 67%
Labour Party supporters – 52%
Women aged 18 to 34 – 49%
People living in the Wellington region – 48%
Graduates – 46%
Those with a household income of more than $150,000 – 45%
Between November 30 and December 4, 2024, 1006 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (505). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
