Te Pāti Māori have surged to their highest ever result in the latest 1News Verian poll following the national hīkoi protesting ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill.
However, the results show the coalition Government still has a grip on power.
The poll found that if an election were to be held today, the National-led coalition with ACT and New Zealand First would have 63 seats – enough to govern.
That’s the same number of seats as forecast by the previous poll in October with support for both National (37%) and Labour (29%) remaining steady.
Te Pāti Māori, however, have shot up by 3% to sit on 7% – far surpassing their previous record of 4.4% in 1News polls back in 2008. The result also puts them ahead of New Zealand First who are up by 1% to 6%.
And it would give them nine seats in Parliament if repeated at the next election – up from the six they hold currently.
Key political events leading up to the poll included the reading of the Treaty Principles Bill, which led to Te Pāti Māori starting a haka in Parliament to show their opposition. The national hīkoi also arrived in the capital on November 19, with tens of thousands joining the protest against the Bill.
Reacting to her party’s rise, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said: “People in Aotearoa have lost confidence in this Government and they support who we are and what we stand for.
“We have been promoting Te Tiriti, they know that we are a party that’s good for protecting all New Zealanders against corporate exploitation, and I think that’s certainly what’s been shown.”
ACT leader David Seymour, responding to Te Pāti Māori’s rise and the hīkoi, said: “I think it’s boosted their attention, but attention is always followed by scrutiny and if I was them, I would be quite worried because the solution cupboard that they have is rather bare.”
Prime Minister and National leader Christopher Luxon said: “Kiwis understand the job that I am doing. I inherited a hell of a mess, I’ve put together a team to deal with that, they can see it’s been difficult and understand it’s been tough, but we are making progress.”
Greens take a hit
The Greens, who ousted former MP Darleen Tana in October, are the biggest casualties – falling by 2% to 10% – while ACT are steady on 8%.
The Opportunities Party (TOP) fell by 1% to 2%, and Freedoms New Zealand are steady on 1% – both sitting far off the 5% threshold needed to win a seat in Parliament.
In the poll – which surveyed 1006 eligible voters and ran from November 30 to December 4 – 10% of people said they didn’t know or refused to say who they would vote for, up slightly on the previous survey.
The numbers mean that National would have 46 seats, down three on their current allocation in Parliament; Labour would have 36, up two; and the Greens would have 12, down three. ACT would have 10, losing one seat; and New Zealand First would also lose an MP, falling to seven.
Parliament would return to its standard size of 120 seats, three fewer than it does at present due to the overhang as a result of Te Pāti Māori’s results in the election.
The latest 1News Verian poll has found the right bloc is still in front, however. (Source: 1News)
In the preferred prime minister stakes, there are minor changes across the board. National’s Christopher Luxon has fallen by 1% to 24% – close to his lowest rankings of 23% recorded back in April and June.
Labour’s Chris Hipkins also remains low, sitting steady on 15% – equal to his lowest results registered in February and October this year.
ACT’s David Seymour saw the biggest rise, moving up by 2% to 6% – his best result in over a year.
The Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick sits steady on 6%, NZ First’s Winston Peters drops by 1% to 5%.
There are honourable mentions with 1% each for Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke, whose profile was raised after she ripped up the Treaty Principles Bill in Parliament, former prime minister Jacinda Ardern, and Finance Minister Nicola Willis.
Party vote
National – 37% (steady)
Labour – 29% (steady)
Green – 10% (down 2%)
ACT – 8% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 7% (up 3%)
New Zealand First – 6% (up 1%)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 2% (down 1%)
Freedoms New Zealand – 1% (steady)
Don’t know / refused to say – 10% (up 1%)
Seats in the House
National – 46
Labour – 36
Green – 12
ACT – 10
New Zealand First – 7
Te Pāti Māori – 9
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 24% (down 1%)
Chris Hipkins – 15% (steady)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 6% (steady)
David Seymour – 6% (up 2%)
Winston Peters – 5% (down 1%)
Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke – 1% (up 1%)
Between November 30 and December 4, 2024, 1006 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (505). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
