That’s the sales pitch of Polymarket — the world’s largest predictions platform.
The site was launched in 2020 as the brainchild of Gen Z’s first self-made billionaire — Shayne Coplan — and ever since, Polymarket has exploded in popularity. In the year to date its markets have drawn in $15 billion worth of wagers, spread across some 500,000 active users.
The site allows you to bet on virtually any global event, serious or not. Top Spotify artist of 2025? A $35 million prediction.
How many tweets will Elon Musk make next week? A prediction of $12m. Perhaps the most dystopian option of all is the ability to bet on war. Millions of dollars wagered on whether Russia will capture Pokrovsk, or the Middle East ceasefire will hold. Put simply, it’s betting on death.
This is surely cause for concern. Setting aside the dubious morality of profiting from conflict, I worry about the perverse incentives that these predictions encourage.
When substantial money is placed behind the “favourable odds”, bettors will be naturally swayed towards supporting their predictions.
Polymarket risks perpetuating the democratic illness and turning individuals into small-scale lobbyists for their prediction positions.
A similar consideration was a point of concern during the 2024 American election.
The presidential race was Polymarket’s largest: over $3b wagered on democracy’s greatest circus show. Vast profits were made by Donald Trump’s backers with one “whale” allegedly earning $85m from the election result.
At the time, spectators raised concern that large bets could dilute the odds and create false perceptions that impacted voter behaviour.
If Polymarket’s odds were overwhelmingly in Mr Trump’s favour, it could have created what appeared to be a “lost cause” scenario and discourage voting.
As such, spectators worried that it would be theoretically possible for individuals with vast wealth, to “manipulate” the markets to support their own agenda.
Polymarket rebuts this possibility; it sees the odds as a product of market forces and there is evidence to suggest it may be right.
Polymarket’s odds were far more reflective of the election outcome than traditional polls. This is not necessarily surprising.
Prediction markets can react at a far faster pace than traditional — lethargic — polling institutions.
They also leave little room for indecision. You’re hardly going to put significant money down on a position you have little faith in. Because of this, Polymarket offers forecasters a strong source of data. Measuring sentiment is a valuable game and Polymarket has its finger on the pulse.
Polymarket’s growth to date has been nothing short of remarkable.
Much of this is down to the novelty factor that sets the prediction market apart.
A large variety of unconventional markets lets users put their money on specialty topics, hobbies and information that they previously thought of as useless facts. There is a market for everyone, and this makes wagering feel scarily accessible.
Perhaps there is also a psychological component. Global events can feel detached at the best of times, but when you place a prediction, you become a first-hand stakeholder. It gives you a little bit more connection to the world around you and, for some, this might just equate to some arbitrary sense of control.
The past five years have undoubtedly been more globally tumultuous.
People have become more politically active, and this appears to have coincided with the rise of Polymarket. I suspect that this is more than a mere correlation.
So, what does the future hold for Polymarket? To date, its biggest challenge has been a constant stream of battles against the regulators. Many Western countries have tightening digital gambling laws and it has so far been deemed that Polymarket falls within this classification.
As a result, the site is technically banned in countries like the United States, Britain and Australia — although widespread use of virtual private networks and crypto-currency allow users to circumvent such restrictions. Notably, Polymarket is still available in New Zealand.
Undoubtedly growth will sky-rocket if Polymarket can overcome this hurdle and 2025 has brought major progress.
In August, Polymarket secured investment from 1789 Capital, Donald Trump jun’s venture capital firm.
As part of the deal, the president’s son was appointed as an adviser for Polymarket and it is hard to see how this will not help Polymarket’s bid for legal and social legitimacy within the US.
More significantly, in October, Polymarket received $US2b ($NZ3.5b) in investment from Intercontinental Exchange (Ice). Ice owns the New York Stock Exchange and the move saw Polymarket’s branding plastered over the hallowed halls of Wall Street.
It marks an odd blend between the securities market and gambling, which worryingly appears to be a trend.
For example, Robin Hood — the US equivalent to Sharesies — has recently introduced sports betting to its service. The decision was revenue-driven and surely sets a concerning precedent. We mustn’t forget that although uncertainty plays a role in both there is a substantial difference between gambling and financial markets.
Coplan will be glad that Polymarket’s future appears bright — but will it be at our expense? The Polymarket question will inevitably come up, and New Zealand will need to decide its stance.
Yes, the site offers some quirky fun, but do we really need another way to gamble?
— Caleb Oakley is studying history, politics and economics at the University of Otago.
Disclaimer: this article is the author’s opinion and the information contained in it is accurate to the best of the author’s knowledge at the time of publication. Events, data, regulatory settings, and circumstances relating to Polymarket and associated entities may change over time.
