1News weather expert Daniel Corbett sets out what we can expect from the first month of summer.
Here comes summer! Are you ready for what it might throw at us?
Summer is officially here tomorrow and this one could keep you on your toes.
Temperatures have been continuing to warm not just in the air but also the seas around New Zealand. That coupled with a shift in weather patterns could have some of us reaching for the raincoats more often this month in the run up to Christmas.
This summer could have a different look to last year in some parts of the country because of a weak La Nina developing in the Pacific Ocean.
Quick recap on La Nina
La Nina is a weather pattern where the seas across the eastern Equatorial Pacific are cooler than normal. Seas are much warmer than normal further west.
This can increase the easterly wind flow in equatorial regions from high pressure in the eastern Pacific to low pressure further west to just north of Australia.
This in turn can push our summertime highs further south down across the South Island typically, so the north of the country gets exposed to more of the humid northeasterlies.
Along with that, the warmer air in the atmosphere from La Nina weather patterns tends to sit north and east of the country which can affect the steering of the incoming lows.
It can cause them to linger and cut off – bringing rain for several days. These sorts of weather patterns can be a real pain for a beach holiday!
The big thing to watch too on the weather maps will be the big highs parked just east of the country. They act as big brick walls that slow weather systems from moving east.
This will put us in the humid northerly flow and expose the north of the country to an increased risk of Tasman rainmakers. This can include tropical cyclones too.
Further south, across much of the South Island, as the large highs pass through expect more fine and warm spells. There could be quite a few 30C-plus days across parts of the interior.
Places such as the Mackenzie Basin down to the Southern Lakes and Central Otago will more than likely enjoy some 30 degree days.
What’s in store for Christmas Day
The exact mix for the day is hard to pick this far out, but if you are further north – from Hawke’s Bay across the Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Auckland and Northland – you might want to have the indoor back up plan for Christmas. In case a humid Tasman rainmaker rolls in.
Further south, in the deep south of the South Island it could be in fine shape with decent sunshine if the highs are close by.
Enjoy the Christmas day backyard of beach cricket match with the kids. Hopefully, you don’t need the raincoats for it where you are.
What to expect this summer as Christmas creeps closer – watch Dan’s outlook on TVNZ+
