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Russia has high expectations for President Vladimir Putin’s trip to China this week, with the Kremlin saying both sides will use the visit to further develop their “privileged partnership”. Putin is due to begin his official visit to Beijing shortly after US President Donald Trump met his Chinese counterpart.
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While Moscow has officially said the visit will focus on strengthening Russia and China’s “strategic partnership”, the timing points to a broader geopolitical agenda — and to China’s growing diplomatic leverage.
Trump visited Beijing less than a week ago, but despite high expectations, the trip was widely seen as underwhelming. There was no significant progress on trade, Ukraine or the conflict with Iran.
Those same issues are expected to feature prominently in Putin’s talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Russia-China agenda
Putin’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, firmly denied on Monday that there was any connection between the Russian leader’s visit and Trump’s recent trip.
“It should be noted that there is no link between Trump’s and Putin’s visits. We usually agree the agenda for talks with the Chinese in advance,” he said.
Ushakov added that the date of Putin’s visit had been agreed in early February, while Trump had originally planned to visit Beijing between late March and early April.
“Then, for obvious reasons related to the Iranian situation, it was moved forward to 13–15 May, meaning it took place just before our trip to Beijing,” he said.
Ushakov also confirmed that Putin will arrive in Beijing on Tuesday evening and meet Xi Jinping on 20 May.
While Trump travelled to China with more than a dozen US business leaders, Putin’s delegation will include business representatives, five deputy prime ministers, eight ministers, several regional governors and the head of Russia’s central bank — a sign of Moscow’s increasing economic dependence on China.
Notably, Kirill Dmitriev will also travel to Beijing. Officially the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Dmitriev has also become the Kremlin’s key negotiator with the US administration in diplomatic efforts aimed at ending Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Beijing’s ‘bargaining chips’
Putin is expected to focus heavily on securing continued Chinese support for Moscow, as China has effectively become Russia’s most important international partner since the start of the war in Ukraine.
China’s deepening ties with Russia have become an increasing concern in Western capitals, including Brussels.
Western diplomats and analysts believe Beijing’s economic and diplomatic backing has helped sustain Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
However, Xi Jinping’s primary focus is likely to remain Taiwan rather than Ukraine. In that context, the timing of both Trump’s and Putin’s visits may reflect a wider geopolitical bargaining strategy.
Following his trip to China, Trump appeared to cast doubt on continued US support for Taiwan.
Although the US president approved a record $11 billion (€9.5 billion) arms package for Taiwan in December — including missiles, drones, artillery systems and military software — he said he had yet to give final approval for the deal, adding that it “depends on China”.
“It’s a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly,” Trump said.
Any suspension of US arms sales to Taiwan would represent a major diplomatic victory for Beijing and may be viewed by China as a higher priority than support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year with no clear end in sight.
