The military deal signed by Albania, Croatia and Kosovo has angered Serbia at a time of growing concern over defence capabilities across the continent.
As concerns grow over the future of US support for European security and EU nations ramp up defence spending, three countries in southeastern Europe have signed a military agreement that they say will boost regional stability.
The defence ministers of Albania, Kosovo, and Croatia last week met in Tirana to sign a joint declaration of cooperation intended to boost defence capacity, advance military technology and improve regional interoperability through shared training and exercises.
However, the new alliance has sparked criticism in Serbia, which does not recognise Kosovo as an independent state. Kosovo declared independence in 2008, almost a decade after a 78-day bombing campaign by NATO that ended a conflict between Serbian government forces and ethnic Albanian separatists.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said that Albania and Croatia — which are NATO members — were fuelling an “arms race” in the region by signing the deal with Kosovo.
“It is a difficult situation for us but we have understood their message. And we will protect our country, deter them, and always successfully defend it from any potential aggressor, even this powerful one,” Vučić said on Wednesday.
According to Serbian media outlets, Vučić and his ally Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán have held talks about a similar bilateral military agreement between the two nations.
Writing on X on Wednesday following Vučić’s criticism of the trilateral agreement, Croatian Defence Minister Ivan Anušić said that the “time has passed when we asked Belgrade what we were going to do”.
“Albania is our ally in NATO, and Kosovo is a friendly country that we have recognised,” he said. “More countries will join the initiative”.
US President Donald Trump’s recent rapprochement with Russia, threats to NATO members over spending, and US warnings that European security can no longer be Washington’s main focus have pushed the defence issue to the fore across the continent.
Yet will the trilateral agreement really bolster defence capabilities and military stability in southeastern Europe as the threat of US disengagement looms ever-larger, or is it mere sabre-rattling that could further raise political temperatures?
A hollow agreement?
According to Mimoza Ahmetaj, Kosovo’s former minister of EU integration, the trilateral agreement has clear political significance.
“It means that two NATO countries (Albania and Croatia) will join Kosovo in military drills and will contribute and support Kosovo in its path towards NATO membership,” she told Euronews in an interview.
“And they will support Kosovo to counter potential cyber attacks and hybrid warfare offensives,” added Ahmetaj, who also served as Kosovo’s ambassador in Brussels, among other diplomatic postings.
Pristina is mulling turning its lightly armed Kosovo Security Force (KSF) into an army by 2028.
Since 1999, the international peacekeeping force, KFOR, and the EU Rule of Law Office Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) have served as the country’s military protection forces and back-up to its police and judiciary, as part of a UN mandate.
ADVERTISEMENTThe development of Kosovo’s security forces is strongly opposed by Belgrade, as Serbian politicians argue that it could be used to stir conflict with the remaining ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, particularly in its north.
Ultimately, the agreement between Albania, Kosovo and Croatia was intended to demonstrate regional stability at a time of heightened tensions, and is likely to prove symbolic at best, said Nikola Lunić, executive director of the Belgrade-based think-tank Council for Strategic Policy.
“[It] is an empty document. It will need the approval of NATO, since Croatia and Albania are members of the alliance, as well as of the OSCE (the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe), which is in charge of arms control in the region,” he said. “The same goes for any memorandum that could be signed between Serbia and Hungary.”
Better together
Croatia is the most powerful of the three countries in the agreement, and the only one to be member of both NATO and the EU.
ADVERTISEMENTAlthough Croatia’s military industry is small compared to EU heavyweights, it is still vital in southeastern Europe, said Croatian defence and security expert Igor Tabak.
“If Kosovo, somewhere in the future starts establishing an army, (Croatia) would like to have a foothold there,” said Tabak, founding director of the website Obris.
“Because Croatia is thinking of upgrading its defence industry related to the EU ReArm project. So, if we if we manage to establish some additional production, we will need new markets,” he added.
Earlier this month, the European Commission announced the ReArm Europe plan, since rebranded to Readiness 2030, to mobilise up to €800 billion for defence investments.
ADVERTISEMENTSerbia and Croatia have been scrambling to acquire new weapons systems in recent years, even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
The two countries, formerly at war during the violent breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, signed a military cooperation deal in 2010. Despite the simmering strain on relations between Belgrade and Zagreb, it is still valid, Tabak said.
“Subregional armament control treaties … (are) one of the very few regimes that are still enforced in the region,” he said.
