Nearly a week after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s secret trip to Moscow fuelled fears that Russia could be preparing to test NATO, European officials are pushing back against suggestions that a conventional attack might be imminent.
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From Finland and Romania to the Baltic states, governments say there is no evidence Moscow is preparing for a direct confrontation with NATO – even as they continue strengthening their defences and warn of a growing Russian threat.
Officials across NATO’s eastern flank argue that preparing for Russian aggression is not the same as expecting it.
John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the US-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies, told Euronews that Ratcliffe may have been delivering several messages in Moscow.
“My own view is that a conventional Russian military attack against a NATO member remains highly unlikely, especially while the Ukraine war continues,” Hardie said. “However, even while that scenario remains unlikely overall, there are reasons to see the risk ticking up a bit.”
“The Iran war has reduced US readiness, while the Trump administration has sowed doubt regarding US political will to defend Europe. In recent months, we’ve seen intrusions into NATO airspace that could have been intended to probe our response.”
Hardie also said US officials may also be worried about what Putin could do if he feels “frustrated or cornered” in Ukraine, although he saw a second round of Russian mobilisation as a more likely response.
No imminent attack, but better be ready
Hardie’s assessment broadly mirrors what European leaders are saying publicly.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb dismissed predictions that Russia could be ready to attack a NATO country within the next few years.
“If anyone has a crystal ball like that – that’s great. I simply see neither evidence nor facts to support it,” Stubb told Germany’s Bild newspaper over the weekend, adding that the intelligence available to him supported his assessment.
“It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance.”
Nonetheless, Finland is strengthening its defences along its 1,340-kilometre border with Russia, while Sweden has granted a request from Helsinki to send Gripen fighter jets and a naval vessel to support Finland’s territorial surveillance along the border.
Finnish officials see no contradiction: greater military preparedness is intended to deter Russia and guard against drones, airspace violations and other forms of escalation, not brace for an impending attack.
Romania has offered a similar assessment. Defence Minister Radu Miruță told Romanian broadcaster Digi24 on Sunday that Bucharest and its allies were constantly sharing intelligence, with “no indication” that Russia intended to attack a NATO member.
“I don’t think Russia has any intention to attack a NATO member country,” Miruță said.
Romania shares a 614-kilometre border with Ukraine and has repeatedly seen Russian drones cross into its territory.
Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs was more explicit still, saying in a statement on X that the country’s military threat level had not changed and the risk of a direct Russian invasion remained low.
Latvia nevertheless remains on heightened alert for cyber attacks, sabotage, provocations and drones, while strengthening its eastern border alongside NATO allies.
“Readiness for a possible threat is not the same as an immediate threat,” Kulbergs said. “These two things must not be confused.”
Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are among NATO’s biggest military spenders relative to the size of their economies.
When ‘hybrid’ warfare is already war
Poland has struck a more cautious tone.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said after a briefing from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte this weekend that “the escalation from Russia’s side is progressing”.
“We cannot rule out provocations from Russia against one of NATO’s members,” Tusk said. “The next six months will be decisive, and we must be prepared as Poland and NATO for various scenarios.”
His warning points to another dimension of Europe’s threat assessment: while a conventional attack may not be imminent, Russian aggression is already taking other forms.
European governments have accused Moscow of cyber attacks, sabotage and other hostile operations across the continent, while Russian aircraft and drones have repeatedly violated NATO airspace.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna argued on X that calling activities like these “hybrid warfare” understates the threat.
Responding to comments by Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin, Tsahkna wrote: “Enough with the euphemisms. Putin’s campaign of sabotage and subversion across Europe is not ‘hybrid warfare’. It is state-sponsored terrorism. Call it what it is.”
Hardie also said such Russian actions were already taking place.
“As for aggressive acts below the threshold of open war, such as arson against European defence plants, those are already occurring and have been for years now, but to limited strategic effect,” he told Euronews.
“Moscow does have options to escalate in this area, but doing so is unlikely to achieve much greater impact and could perversely produce blowback.”
