Reform UK are set to make huge gains in local elections in the UK on Thursday, as the far-right, anti-immigrant party draws increasing support from angry voters.
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“The UK has been flooded with illegal immigrants that shouldn’t be here. They’re all claiming benefits…It’s costing us an absolute fortune,” said Robert Robinson, a 70-year-old former Conservative voter, who said he was “leaning” towards backing Reform.
“All the other parties, they’ve all had their chance to stop the boats and none of them have done it,” he added.
The number of irregular migrants arriving on small boats across the English Channel has been a hot-button issue in Britain for the past several years.
Led by pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, Reform UK has surged in polls largely due to its campaign against immigration. It has vowed a wave of mass deportations if it wins the next general election, which is not due until 2029.
Farage won a parliamentary seat in 2024, while the party now has eight MPs and gained a host of councils and seats in local elections last year.
Polls predict it could inflict a major blow to both Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s ruling Labour Party and the opposition Conservatives in Thursday’s vote, with more than 5,000 council seats up for grabs.
Leading the polls
Its mantra of “Vote Reform, Get Starmer out” could help the party make inroads into many traditional Labour and Conservative strongholds.
In the small southern town of Braintree in Essex, immigration has become a lightning rod for anger since a nearby former airbase was refurbished to house asylum seekers.
“It’s just crazy, it’s constant,” said Dan White, a school canteen worker, referring to new arrivals. Migrants “are getting a lot more than everyone else is getting.”
For months, Reform has led the polls on around 26% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives at 19% and Labour with 18%.
Trailing are the eco-populist Greens, still polling higher than in past elections at 15%, according to pollsters YouGov.
Reform’s distinctive turquoise campaign bus carrying Conservative defector Robert Jenrick drew beeps and shouts of encouragement as it travelled through Essex recently.
People feel the old parties “failed them massively, let them down”, Jenrick, a minister in the previous Tory government, told the AFP news agency.
“Immigration too high, taxes too high. Nothing seems to be working, from the potholes in the road to waiting lists for the NHS, and they come into Reform for real change.”
According to the More in Common think tank, Reform could win between 1,200 and 1,600 seats around England on Thursday, having already snatched a 40% share in 2025’s smaller local polls.
There is a “lot of turquoise rising” on the map of the county of Essex, said Luke Tryl, the think tank’s executive director.
That would be a blow for the Tories and their leader Kemi Badenoch, whose parliamentary constituency lies in the northwest corner of Essex.
In Essex as in neighbouring Suffolk or the central Midlands, Reform is proving popular among older voters.
“They are uncomfortable with a lot of the social changes of the last few decades, particularly the advent of a progressively more multicultural and more socially liberal Britain,” said political expert Tim Bale, from Queen Mary University in London.
Racism accusations
Reform is also expected to do well in Wales and Scotland in Thursday’s vote for the devolved parliaments.
“The truth is the Conservative Party will disappear (after the polls) as a national party,” Farage told London’s Standard newspaper.
Still reeling from their historic national defeat to Labour in the 2024 elections, the Conservatives are battling to stem the tide.
Badenoch has vowed that the party has changed.
“This is a New Conservative Party, new leader. I’m changing things. We made mistakes in the past,” she said.
And she has hit out at Farage, who has no experience of national leadership, saying he “changes his mind constantly” and “is not someone who plays by the rules.”
Reform has also attracted controversy with some candidates criticised for racist and xenophobic remarks.
“Reform are kind of just like a fear campaign…I think it’s a lot of hate mongering. I think they’re distracting from a lot of actual issues,” said Daniel Irlam, 28, a medical photographer. He plans to vote Green.
Farage, who openly describes himself as a friend of US President Donald Trump, has also been questioned over an undeclared £5‑million (€5.7 million) donation from a cryptocurrency magnate.
The party’s track record is shaky. In southeastern Kent, run by Reform since 2025, the party has been forced to abandon promises to cut local taxes and has faced criticism for trimming certain social spending.
